Michael Could Reach Cat3

in Weather

Most of the predictive models for hurricane Michael, this morning are in consensus as to the general area of landfall, but not the intensity.

Michael has now strengthened to a category 2 hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, but models aren't sure where it will go, in terms of strength. GFS models show winds of 102 mph, while HWRF models show winds of 131 mph. These models put Michael in the Category 2-3 range, meaning damage will be extensive. 

The trough that existed over the Gulf, Sunday and Monday, has cleared out to the North, as expected, leaving the way for Michael. Eastward flowing wind shear that existed, because of this trough has also decreased, making the Gulf of Mexico prime real estate for tropical development. 

We are now seeing large bands of convection close to the eye wall and a definite eye starting to show under the clouds, with circulation forming, yesterday. Microwave data reveals the unmistakable, but incomplete, eye wall of a hurricane. 

20181009.1112.f18.x.91h 1deg.14LMICHAEL.80kts 973mb 236N 857W.057pc